We all make predictions in our personal and professional lives. We base our decisions to marry, buy a house, launch a new product or hire staff on expectations about the future. How we can use best practices and current research to improve our ability to predict the future? We will examine current best practices in forecasting to help us prepare better budgets and projections. We will also examine budgeting pitfalls and ways to avoid budget traps. We will discuss the risks that cause actual results to vary from our predictions and discuss methods to deal with both known and unknown risks.
Course ID: PTF
Predicting the Future: Create the Best Projections You Can
- To give participants insight into current best practices for developing financial projections
- How (or whether) to consider the past in company budgeting
- The critical roles of strategic planning and risk management in developing best projections
- The many purposes and types of budgets and projections and how the many uses of budgets and projections can cause distortions
- Current budgeting and projections best practices • Why great predictions are not intuitive but the result of critical thinking, gathering information and updating predictions when needed. • Why an open mind and the ability to doubt helps make great predictions. • Why it is better to be a fox than a hedgehog. • How non-conformists change the world. • How to focus on what matters. • How to learn from the past without hindsight bias. • How to separate correlation from causation. • How to recognize and overcome bias. • Who is Thomas Bayes and why he matters. • Why the many purposes and types of budgets and projections cause distortions. • How benchmarking and metrics have changed the budget process. Case Studies and Discussion: The course material will include group discussion and case studies.